William Thien

2016 Election Outcome Analysis

Posted on: November 15, 2016

Someone asked me what I thought about the outcome of the election. I presume they were nonplussed at the results and thought I could offer an explanation.

At this point I would have to say that Trump had the right message and The Clinton campaign lacked any coherent message.

Throughout the Clinton campaign when things seemed to be faltering Clinton retreated to issues that she believed would ignite the female vote and based on the larger number of female voters in this country she expected to win. As I said early on during the campaign, this was going to be an election based on gender politics and I was right.

Women in prominent office around the country were predicting a landslide in favor of Clinton just on that one area of debate, gender politics, as if gender politics were the only issue facing this country.

Yet, to me the outcome of the election suggests that even female voters believe a lot of what Clinton thought were valid female issues were in fact issues invalidated by the lack of female votes for Clinton, which did in fact happen. In other words, the issues Clinton thought were valid issues were not valid at all or at the very least they did not surpass the significance of Trump’s message and positions during the campaign.

Furthermore, I believe male voters who favored Clinton throughout the campaign grew weary of listening to the constant questioning and moaning coming from Clinton and the moderators during the debates about gender issues that seemed to be inordinately unfair and amplified only to inflame the female voter. Essentially, as a strategy it instead had a cumulatively negative result.

I believe you could in fact assign a numerical value to these issues, summing them up and posing questions to prospective voters to determine the outcome of the election in advance.

Furthermore, I don’t think any machinations by any federal agency during the campaign had anything to do with the outcome because quite possibly the entire nation was surprised at the outcome of the election, including both the Trump and Clinton campaigns.

Ultimately then I believe Clinton made a strategic error in proceeding to make the campaign about gender politics which she seemed to do at all times and Trump effectively made the campaign about structural and economic issues that face the country. He stuck to those issues and it paid off.

That is all.

 

Copyright © William Thien 2016

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